dow tops 27,000 for first time ...

Politics and religion: two polarizing topics that deserve their own little place
tmcats
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Re: dow tops 27,000 for first time ...

Post by tmcats » July 14th, 2019, 12:04 pm

ChemicalKat wrote:
July 14th, 2019, 11:34 am
tmcats wrote:
July 14th, 2019, 11:13 am
$10k at the beginning of 2001, here is the results of your options at the end of 2008:

all S&P stock: -24% real cumulative return, you would end up with $7,585


you write that and then claim going cash is wrong. good lord. :|
You completely missed the point and didn’t bother reading the rest of the post. I’ve never seen someone so wrong before. And you’re an economist?
the point is your words, c'cat.
"There ain't anybody stoppin' our ass!" CK

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Post by katlander » July 14th, 2019, 1:31 pm

OK, I'll throw in my two bits regarding the stock market and markets in general. I am pretty conservative and being that way has cost me some dinero, especially the last twenty years. What many fail to realize is that just because things have been a certain way for a while doesn't mean it will continue. The stock market has been historically great to those with the right mind set. But there are no guarantees.

Generally it is best to buy and hold but there are times when things get crazy that could point to caution. The late 90s around the time GW was nominated was a time of crazy speculation in tech stock. IPOs were going nuts. When things get crazy like that watch out. The latter Bush years were a time of crazy house lending. Anyone with common sense knew it was crazy but few anticipated the chaos that would result. Obviously this would have been a good time to get out of the market, however to do so often in cut tax consequences and then one has to find another place to invest the funds.

I feel the stock market is largely based on emotion. Greed and fear. Supply and demand. Interest rates play a huge role for various reasons. One reason is that higher interest rates cost many businesses money and slow the economy. Additionally higher interest rates attract more dollars to be placed in interest bearing vehicles. This means fewer dollars going to stocks and more stocks being sold. less dollars chasing stocks means lower stock prices.

So the more people who are sold on stocks the higher stocks will go and the higher stocks go the more people have confidence in the market. Things can just keep getting more nuts. This tends to be the case until stock prices become unsustainable or until something happens which frightens people. Then we can have a panic and huge sell off. This is simplified but much the way it works. I think it is very possible that we could see a major panic at some point which will not result in stocks recovering and going higher in a short period of time. A depression.

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Post by Opensource » July 14th, 2019, 3:24 pm

ChemicalKat wrote:
July 13th, 2019, 4:20 pm
tmcats wrote:
July 13th, 2019, 12:56 pm
you're ignorant, chemicalcat. you have the perspective of a thirty-year-old. a millennial mindset. and i believe you have next to nothing invested in the markets given how you spout nonsense. for those living on retirement income, trying to keep up with ever-increasing tax loads and volatile markets, there is a time to go cash. we did it when bush was nominated. it saved us a ton of money. i've also done it when there was no reward. for youngsters, staying in is good advice. but not all are that way. furthermore, there is no better judge than oneself about how to manage my money. ultimately, i am responsible.
Just to demonstrate how out of touch with reality and how wrong tmcats is, if you were an investor who is truly worried about president Bush II and had $10k at the beginning of 2001, here is the results of your options at the end of 2008:

all S&P stock: -24% real cumulative return, you would end up with $7,585
going to cash: -17.8% real cumulative return, you would end up with an inflation adjusted value of $8,220.65
buy 10 year treasuries to get past the Bush administration: 43% real cumulative return, you would end up with a value of$16,165.26

by the way, if you would have held onto that all S&P stock to today, you would have gotten 119% cumulative return more than doubling your money.

Tmcats is giving really really really bad advice here.
Listen to Warren Buffett’s team as they are the winners at that game. Timing the market is very difficult. Beating the market is very difficult. He would advocate a buy and hold index fund strategy unless you really are informed.

tmcats
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Post by tmcats » July 14th, 2019, 3:54 pm

the stock market basis, in my view, is how well companies' earnings versus expectations are coupled with what's going on in the world, mostly politics, e.g. the bernie sanders of the world.
"There ain't anybody stoppin' our ass!" CK

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Post by RichardZ » July 14th, 2019, 6:41 pm

I have just finished on book on Bernie Madoff and am into a second one. I am just fascinated by his humble beginnings and his lurch into unrelenting greed, lies and manipulation.

He created the biggest Ponzi scheme in history. A $50B one.

What got me the most is that the total ineptitude of the SEC and other regulatory agencies who either are just dufusses or were in awe of Madoff (who by the way was one of the founder's of the NASDAQ). There were numerous reports and allegations by some very smart people that Madoff was a crook, but nothing ever happened.

I think Vegas casinos probably have more safeguards than the stock market. Most of us are just little tiny fish playing in a huge ocean. The whales have protection, but the little fishes can go down the drain pretty quickly when things go South.
"If you don't know where you are going any road will get you there."
Lewis Carroll

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Post by ToledoCat#2 » July 15th, 2019, 8:34 am

Our federal financial regulatory agencies are a big-time joke -- and have been for decades. They slap the little folks around a bit for show, but let the big dogs roan free until they create a fiasco that required a federal bailout. Regulation and regulators of the stock markets and the banking industry bow to the powerful -- until they can't bow any longer and lower -- only then do they act -- too little, too late. They have to be forced in to action by their own refusal to act when needed.

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Post by NealyFan » August 5th, 2019, 3:18 pm

Worst day of the year. Hope it is not a sign of things to come. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... trade-war/

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Post by xtrawildcat » August 5th, 2019, 6:49 pm

Those trade wars are tricky things to manage. However, Herbert Hoover would be proud of Trump for trying to prove trade wars are the way to go.
https://www.history.com/news/trade-war- ... oot-hawley

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Post by ToledoCat#2 » August 5th, 2019, 7:46 pm

From the teeth gnashing going on after today's market close, I guess everyone would be content to let China and others rip the U.S. on trade ad infinitum. Free trade is a farce. Everything in managed trade. China eventually will get it's just rewards from devaluing its currency.

BTW, I lost in the stocks today, but recouped much of the loss from a nice bounce in silver prices. Ah, the benefits of a diversified portfolio. Silver and gold -- constant-valued wealth that's gotta be dug from the ground and refined, not simply printed on paper or created out of thin air on a computer.

The near-future of precious metals is as bright as a newly-minted silver dollar or a shining gold Maple Leaf, which, by the way, I love to fondle, Scrooge-like, with my old money-grubbing capitalist fingers. :) ;) ')

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Post by WIldWIllieCat » August 5th, 2019, 7:52 pm

Totally Bernie Sanders' fault.
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