Seth Littrell is HIGHLY OVERRATED

The defending Big XII Champions
blyne3
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Re: Seth Littrell is HIGHLY OVERRATED

Post by blyne3 » December 7th, 2018, 8:48 am

Tbonespop wrote:
December 7th, 2018, 1:13 am



Look at their coaching ties. Look at their moves and how are they connected? What's the back story between each coaching move - as in the REAL back story. Are they getting exposure to different head coaches and coordinators? Are they getting exposed to different schemes on both sides of the ball? Are they career position coaches? Are they getting jobs based on what takes place at coaching clinics? Dig into the "why" not the "where" and "what". Whatever happens, don't get enamored with "likability" or "young, enthusiastic" or "great recruiter". Look no further than the hype that came with Ron Prince. Have we not learned from that experience? The examples similar to that Ron Prince hire happen every year because an AD fell in love with a BS artist.

It can all be boiled down to is each coaching move a "merit based" move or are they following their buddies around?

That right there is why I want someone to come in and bring some new coaches. I love what they have done for K-State but they need to go get exposed to more things than just one system.

oscar
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Post by oscar » December 7th, 2018, 9:26 am

ForeverCat wrote:
December 4th, 2018, 2:43 am
Here's why:

> Coaches at UNT outside of a power 5 conference
> 5-8
> 9-5
> 9-3
> Will likely leave K-State for a larger payday when given the opportunity.
> No bowl game wins.
> Highlight of this season: New Mexico bowl on December 15th.
> he was 12 points from being 6-6 this year.
> Not a proven recruiter outside of his safe space.
> The amount of talent that is available in the DFW metroplex (45 minutes away) is incredible. At a population of 8.2 million, it's like having the entire states of: Kansas, Nebraska, & Oklahoma down the road. It would be like driving to Topeka from Manhattan to recruit.

To be fair... this is what Seth said, "The school's location in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, one of the most fertile recruiting regions in the country, also allows UNT to make the most of its dollars. The Mean Green have seven of their 10 assistants scouring four surrounding counties, splitting up 30 to 35 schools apiece.It's easy to save money in recruiting," Littrell said. "Our budget's never going to have to be huge because of where we're at."

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/colleg ... ools-break

I don’t see the homerun hire aspect to this guy. Reading up on him and studying up on North Texas, he is the 180 degree turn from Snyder that the powers that be craved.
Littrell is very cocky, his teams have multiple uniform combos and helmets, they play very fast and take lots of chances.
Drastic change was wanted by some (not me) so we shall see if this goes better than the Bold and Daring Era Of Cat Ball

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Post by JOKKO » December 7th, 2018, 10:39 am

oscar wrote:
December 7th, 2018, 9:26 am
I don’t see the homerun hire aspect to this guy. Reading up on him and studying up on North Texas, he is the 180 degree turn from Snyder that the powers that be craved.
Littrell is very cocky, his teams have multiple uniform combos and helmets, they play very fast and take lots of chances.
Drastic change was wanted by some (not me) so we shall see if this goes better than the Bold and Daring Era Of Cat Ball
The 1st era of Bill Snyder was very bold & daring. He was one of the most innovative coaches in cfb to the point that Urban Meyer visited him to copy his system. KSU was one of the 1st teams to use the spread. He was the 1st to recruit the community colleges which allowed him to recruit the way he does by not doing it during the season. Can't do that anymore because everyone recruits the CC.

HCBS fell in love with the running quarterback and a disciplined team. What was disciplined about this team? The special teams were hurt by so many players leaving the program with eligibility remaining. The recruiting has become so regional & even that isn't working anymore because look at all of the KS recruits leaving the state this year. We are in Kansas, not fertile Florida, Texas, or even Ohio.

A man who has always respected the media (didn't really like them, but knew they had a job to do), has started cutting them short. He even called out his own players which is something he would never have done.

I think Bill Snyder is probably the best thing to ever happen to KSU and Manhattan, but if you can't see the trend that the program has been on, you never will. Highly doubt anyone else in the world could have done what he did the 1st time. I was in school at the time so I know how bad it was.

Idk if Littrell is the guy or not, but if he is, everyone will need to support him and I am sure Bill will too. I do know that pretty much everyone in the coaching community think that he is a stud.

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Post by hilltopwildcat » December 7th, 2018, 11:37 am

"who is a home run hire for KSU in this search?? "

Maybe we don't need to swing for the fences. How about a nice solid double to the wall?

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Post by Tbonespop » December 7th, 2018, 11:44 am

Gorhoops wrote:
December 7th, 2018, 8:26 am
Tbonespop wrote:
December 7th, 2018, 1:13 am
When it comes to coaching searches, you guys are looking at the wrong metrics. Well, some of the wrong metrics. There are many factors that can impact a coaches record - good and bad. When someone has success in one environment, it's certainly not a guarantee at the next environment. I've posted a little on this in the past as some buddies and I have compiled +3 years worth of data for the purposes of betting. We've identified some key attributes with respect to coaches making moves. It's help us have a very high betting success rate. I won't go into the details too much but I'll give you the overall important things to look for.

Many Administrators are all about hiring the new, sexy "up and comer" coach. That energetic, exciting, well spoken "recruiter type" because "he's going to get all the good talent" (Ron Prince anyone?). It's also very en vogue to go after minority based coaches as well. Don't get me wrong, I'm 1000% supportive of equal opportunity for all people of all races for any job, etc. It's not about race or youth or hot recruiter or charisma, it's about "merit". Have they "earned" it? Isn't this the reason so many people are against Sean Snyder?? The problem comes when coaches are getting advancements not based on actual earned achievements. Look at a coaches progression through the ranks. Coaching is a fraternity. Look at their stops, coaching connections - i.e. the "fraternity". Are they making moves based on being high performing and are they highly sought after? Or are they making moves as coaches because of their buddy buddy relationships (or blood relationships *cough Sean Snyder*)? Is it "earned" or is it a relationship deal or are they riding coat tails? What happens in an off year? How did they respond after a 6-6 or 5-7 season? A handful of recruits that steadily improve in a couple of years could make a program trend up over ~2-3 years. Maybe the coach accidentally caught lightning in a bottle with a couple of key recruits that gave them a couple of good years? Does that mean they will always catch lightning in a bottle? Is that sustainable?

Look at their coaching ties. Look at their moves and how are they connected? What's the back story between each coaching move - as in the REAL back story. Are they getting exposure to different head coaches and coordinators? Are they getting exposed to different schemes on both sides of the ball? Are they career position coaches? Are they getting jobs based on what takes place at coaching clinics? Dig into the "why" not the "where" and "what". Whatever happens, don't get enamored with "likability" or "young, enthusiastic" or "great recruiter". Look no further than the hype that came with Ron Prince. Have we not learned from that experience? The examples similar to that Ron Prince hire happen every year because an AD fell in love with a BS artist.

It can all be boiled down to is each coaching move a "merit based" move or are they following their buddies around?

I have some concerns about Seth Littrell and all his moves with OU cronies. Overall, I think he would be a decent hire, mainly based on him going to UNC. I have serious doubts he's a "homerun" hire. There's a reason that coaches make it into the hall of fame. It's not easy. There aren't many Bill Snyders, Urban Meyers, Nick Sabans, et al.

I will support whoever we get as a new HC, 100%. I think Littrell would be a decent hire. I also think Leavitt would be a very good hire, low risk. Brent Venebles is a VERY high risk coach, with potential high reward. Make no mistake, it's high risk though. While it was time for Bill to step aside, we have been so spoiled with him for a LONG time. I'm not 100% convinced Seth Littrell has completely earned it yet. The indicators are certainly headed in the right direction, but it's a limited data set. Leavitt on the other hand has proven his ability as a coach successfully at many levels over an extended time period.


Ok bones, you have me hooked, now I need to know, who is a home run hire for KSU in this search?? You have posted your merit system, now give me the guy that is a home run.

I enjoy reading your informed posts, am interested to hear, based on your metrics, who you would consider a home run.
Ok, so let me preface this and say that if I were the AD, Jim Leavitt would be my top candidate hands down. He would have been over Littrell all along. There's virtually extremely low risk with Leavitt with tons of upside. He would be an extremely good hire.

Now, this is totally out of left Field (maybe from the bull pen in left field). You are going to think I'm crazy. What does the metrics say for people with respect to candidates that are available or likely to be available? You are going to look at this person and say "no freakin way". You might scoff or even laugh. But the metrics are the metrics and they are what they are. Before I give you the name, let me preface that by saying to remember what happened with Nick Saban in the NFL. He had a decent record in year 1 and a bad record in year 2, then went to Alabama. The NFL didn't pan out for him. This person has a similar experience at the NFL level and will be available very soon. The metrics point to Todd Bowles as being an extremely high likelihood of being a potential home run hire in college. I know that seems crazy based on his situation with the Jets, but you have to realize this is an issue with the Jets organization - not Todd Bowles. Todd Bowles is an outstanding coach. Todd Bowles was intentionally SELECTED to work for the following head coaches based on his merit as a position coach and coordinator: Bill Parcells, Butch Davis, Andy Reid, Tony Sparano, and Bruce Arians. You don't get hand selected by that string of coaches and not know your shit. His moves were solely based on his ability as a coach. He would need to bring in an elite OC with him and some recruiters. It's been a long time since he has coached in college so recruiting would be a question mark he would have to address with his staff. So there is some risk there. But as far as coaches that have earned it based on "merit". Todd Bowles would be a top 3 candidate I would be considering. He's going to be fired from the Jets. Keep an eye on his next move. The NFL is an odd duck. Todd Bowles in the right atmosphere would be a big success. I know that seems totally out of left field, but the data is what the data is. Remember, Nick Saban wasn't successful in the NFL. From the Big Apple to the Little Apple. That is an out of left field candidate that has metrics that are really high on the charts. He's just been in the wrong environment for him, much like Nick Saban. Keep an eye on him is my recommendation.
EMAW

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Post by oscar » December 7th, 2018, 11:49 am

Leavitt, Eric Wolford, Michael Smith- Any of these three would be great and would please most any fan.

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Post by Gorhoops » December 7th, 2018, 11:51 am

Interesting. I honestly don't know much about Todd Bowles, never heard of him before he got the Jets job, but I don't pay much attention to that stuff either.

I will agree with you that Leavitt has been my personal favorite all along, but I was intrigued by Littrell as well. If the sticking point with Littrell was keeping staff on board, then it would seem Leavitt would be the guy. Anyone else at this point, at least of those that have been mentioned, would be a bit scary for me, but I say that with zero clue about a guy like the Troy coach.

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Post by GamerCat » December 7th, 2018, 11:59 am

My personal opinion is Levitt is too old and a safe pick. I question his ability to recruit at his current age. I dont want to hop from 1 over the hill coach to another.

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Post by oscar » December 7th, 2018, 12:01 pm

GamerCat wrote:
December 7th, 2018, 11:59 am
My personal opinion is Levitt is too old and a safe pick. I question his ability to recruit at his current age. I dont want to hop from 1 over the hill coach to another.
Over the hill guy won bowl games in 2016, 2017
Basing a hire on age is absolutely STUPID
By that logic if Saban is interested you say no?

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Post by JOKKO » December 7th, 2018, 12:04 pm

Gorhoops wrote:
December 7th, 2018, 11:51 am
Interesting. I honestly don't know much about Todd Bowles, never heard of him before he got the Jets job, but I don't pay much attention to that stuff either.

I will agree with you that Leavitt has been my personal favorite all along, but I was intrigued by Littrell as well. If the sticking point with Littrell was keeping staff on board, then it would seem Leavitt would be the guy. Anyone else at this point, at least of those that have been mentioned, would be a bit scary for me, but I say that with zero clue about a guy like the Troy coach.
I do like Neal Brown. I am also ok with Leavitt...he would be a young 62 and has plenty of energy and has expanded his wings across the country.

(Still prefer Venables...he would inject so much energy into the program and fanbase)

Pro ranks hires are hit & miss and usually a timing issue unless they are sitting out a year. Saban was very successful in college before the NFL.

Do not want Norvell.

Don't want anything to do with Klieman, but he is my prediction. If so, I'll support him & reevaluate the hire in 3.5 years.

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