Rankings and "luck"

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Highway26north
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Rankings and "luck"

Post by Highway26north » March 13th, 2019, 11:45 am

Today's New York Times has an interesting story about the use of computerized analyses is evaluating (and seeding) teams. According to the algorithms, UNC-Greensboro is the "luckiest" team in the country this year, according to Pomeroy's model. The response of their coach:

“I’m not a mathematician,” he said. “I’m a basketball coach who’s always trying to figure out an edge to help me coach better. But there’s never been anybody that could put a number on will and togetherness of group.

“There’s something that’s happening in our games that’s indescribable to his data that’s getting us over the hump,” Miller added. “That’s toughness. That’s the ability to win close games. The proudest I ever am as a coach is when we have an awful shooting game or we have an awful offensive game and things don’t go our way and we still find a way because our team was able to dig down and figure out a way to get over the hump.”


Francis Alonso, a senior guard from Malaga, Spain, who is the heartbeat of his team, put it another way: “There’s this saying — it’s champions’ luck.”

The full story at https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/13/spor ... -luck.html

learnin
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Post by learnin » March 13th, 2019, 6:52 pm

No doubt that hard work, determination and talent go a long way. Yet, luck also figures, heavily, into the equation. Let's say through hard work, good scheming and determination, you are able to make a game of it. Let's say you win 10 games that came down to the last minute. In those games, you're still playing the odds. The other team has to miss it's shots and you have to make yours when it counts. Now, even the best teams shoot only around 50%.

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gdgjr78
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Post by gdgjr78 » March 13th, 2019, 7:35 pm

You make your own luck imo. We got lucky last year our bracket just completely opened up for us and for the most part they took advantage. That kind of luck is out of your control
"Don't get caught watchin' the paint dry"

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Sir Ocelot
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Post by Sir Ocelot » March 13th, 2019, 7:43 pm

As a nine-seed beat an eight seed without our best player.

Then beat a sixteen seed that beat a full-strength one seed going away without our best player.

Then beat Kentucky with four minutes from our best player.

I don't see much luck there.

Highway26north
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Post by Highway26north » March 13th, 2019, 8:47 pm

I fully appreciate the value of luck and/or making your own luck. But how does an algorithm calculate and quantify "luck" among 200 different teams and deem this team 0.23 luckier than that team? My answer: it's BS just like most of the rest of the phony precision analysis that gets peddled all season long.

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Post by gdgjr78 » March 13th, 2019, 8:48 pm

Sir Ocelot wrote:
March 13th, 2019, 7:43 pm
As a nine-seed beat an eight seed without our best player.

Then beat a sixteen seed that beat a full-strength one seed going away without our best player.

Then beat Kentucky with four minutes from our best player.

I don't see much luck there.
Read my post again, said the way the bracket opened up was luck. They took advantage of said luck by winning 3 games. Still think KSU was better than Loyola and that was a dream matchup to go to the Final 4 but it just wasnt meant to be.
"Don't get caught watchin' the paint dry"

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gdgjr78
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Post by gdgjr78 » March 13th, 2019, 8:52 pm

Highway26north wrote:
March 13th, 2019, 8:47 pm
I fully appreciate the value of luck and/or making your own luck. But how does an algorithm calculate and quantify "luck" among 200 different teams and deem this team 0.23 luckier than that team? My answer: it's BS just like most of the rest of the phony precision analysis that gets peddled all season long.
Lol, you probably believe we never landed on the moon, the earth is flat, vaccines don't work, etc. Since 1979 over 42% of #1 seeds have made the final 4, that's a pretty good job of predicting imo.
"Don't get caught watchin' the paint dry"

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Post by powercat5000 » March 13th, 2019, 9:09 pm

Luck is the derivative of hard work and dedication
-Marty Schottenheimer (I think)

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Post by learnin » March 13th, 2019, 10:02 pm

No matter how much hard work and dedication, New England doesn't win another Super Bowl this year, if Brady goes down with season ending injury last game of season.

Luck stands alone and is a derivative of nothing. We're in control of nothing. This is not to make light of hard work and dedication. The athlete, who looks up and gives thanks to God before talking about the trophy, does not exaggerate. Whether or not there is a God, that athlete does nothing without many things in which he, or she, has any control over.

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Post by Zoltar » March 13th, 2019, 10:23 pm

gdgjr78 wrote:
March 13th, 2019, 8:52 pm
Highway26north wrote:
March 13th, 2019, 8:47 pm
I fully appreciate the value of luck and/or making your own luck. But how does an algorithm calculate and quantify "luck" among 200 different teams and deem this team 0.23 luckier than that team? My answer: it's BS just like most of the rest of the phony precision analysis that gets peddled all season long.
Lol, you probably believe we never landed on the moon, the earth is flat, vaccines don't work, etc. Since 1979 over 42% of #1 seeds have made the final 4, that's a pretty good job of predicting imo.
Is it really a prediction or is a 1 seed given a much easier path to the final 4. I am not sure you could prove which one is causational.
Win the dang day!

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