79% Chance Of Winning the Conference (after OSU win)

Discussion related to the K-State men's basketball team
hilltopwildcat
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Re: 59% Chance Of Winning the Conference

Post by hilltopwildcat » February 10th, 2019, 5:10 pm

I say that there's a 100% chance we win the conference if we go 14-4 and the next best record is 13-5 (unless the chickens get a mulligan because DeSouza didn't play).

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BornWildcat
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Pick 'Em

Post by BornWildcat » February 12th, 2019, 8:02 am

Down to 55%. A TCU win over the turdbirds would have helped a lot last night. Hope we can take care of business in Austin.

KsJoey
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Post by KsJoey » February 12th, 2019, 9:03 am

BornWildcat wrote:
February 12th, 2019, 8:02 am
Down to 55%. A TCU win over the turdbirds would have helped a lot last night. Hope we can take care of business in Austin.
Agreed... a TCU win last night would have really put the hurting on KU, but none the less, they pulled it out at the last minute & overtime. KSU has to keep winning. Can't rely on KU to keep dropping games anymore, except to us!

SeptemberReign
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Post by SeptemberReign » February 12th, 2019, 9:09 am

BornWildcat wrote:
February 10th, 2019, 11:17 am
I realize anything can happen, but this is fun to follow.

We are up to 59%.

I'll feel comfortable when/if we have a 3 game lead with 2 games left.

http://playoffstatus.com/big12basketbal ... dings.html
Indeed, if you play with that tool and look at magic numbers. 7 is not a magic number, lets get that down to < 4. The lower that number gets the more pressure I feel, and I'm just a fat guy in the recliner. I feel a cardiac event brewing.

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BornWildcat
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Pick 'Em

Post by BornWildcat » February 13th, 2019, 7:38 am

Well, now we are at 67% after the win at TX. I can't remember where we were when you started this post but I like 67% better than 55%. Also, we have an 88% chance of ending in the top two.

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Post by Highway26north » February 13th, 2019, 7:53 am

Looking at this number is madness, I tell you. It reeks of bad karma. Madness.
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Post by KITNooga » February 13th, 2019, 8:04 am

Wyldkatz wrote:
February 10th, 2019, 1:42 pm
I will feel comfortable when that thing says 100% chance to win the conference. Right now, 1 game at a time.
right there with you, but 555% does appear to be better odds than a measly little old 100%

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Post by Stan » February 13th, 2019, 8:07 am

Listening to the radio this morning and Fox Sports goes thru the scores from last night and guess what... no mention at all. Ranked team on the road, at UT no less. Toughest conference in the country, first place team... it’s insane how national media across the board is blatantly attempting to ignore K State.

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Post by powercat5000 » February 13th, 2019, 8:38 am

Personally I give ksu a 40% chance of winning the conference right now. I hate to be negative but from years past I think that somehow and someway ku is going to work their way back into the title.

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Post by IStillLikeHarv » February 13th, 2019, 9:29 am

powercat5000 wrote:
February 13th, 2019, 8:38 am
Personally I give ksu a 40% chance of winning the conference right now. I hate to be negative but from years past I think that somehow and someway ku is going to work their way back into the title.

I think it is true that KSU has about a 40% chance of winning the title outright this season. Certainly being up two games in the loss column is a strong position to be in, but there is a catch. The problem is that there are four teams that have only four losses. Given that those four teams are mostly going to lose only to each other (the other teams being weaker), there is a pretty good chance that at least one of them will finish 14-4. That means KSU probably has to finish 5-2 to get a share of the title and 6-1 to win outright. That is possible, but very difficult to do -- particularly with a road game at KU as one of those seven games. Now granted, the other six all look winnable, but winning them all will still be pretty hard to do.
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